this week
It was a brief week, however there was no scarcity of reports.
Right now, the Supreme Court docket dominated that the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act (IEEPA) won’t be used to ascertain tariffs, particularly “reciprocal” country-specific tariffs and fentanyl tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, elevating an estimated $175 billion in income (half of all tariff revenues since early 2025).
Shortly after, President Trump introduced that Part 122 of the Commerce Act of 1974 would impose a ten% international tariff on prime of “common U.S. tariffs.” The article permits the president to enact tariffs to handle “the big and extreme stability of funds deficit of america.” These are solely imposed for a most of 150 days and can’t exceed 15%. President Trump additionally mentioned he would launch a Part 301 investigation to in the end impose long-term tariffs. We’ve got to attend for additional particulars to get a clearer image.
However that is not all! I additionally bought the next:
Fourth quarter GDP progress a lot slower than anticipated attributable to authorities shutdown: Actual GDP progress within the fourth quarter was solely +1.4% on an annualized foundation, half the consensus estimate. Nevertheless, the federal authorities shutdown diminished progress by 1% (most of which must be reversed within the first quarter), whereas home demand grew at a strong +2.4%. Headline PCE inflation as much as 2.9% year-over-year: Not like the CPI, PCE inflation remains to be rising (partly attributable to housing being a a lot smaller a part of PCE), pushed up by meals and core items. January Fed minutes are constructive about price hikes: The labor market is displaying “indicators of stabilization, and inflation stays above.” To be able to attain that objective, “a number of” individuals have been keen to explain future rate of interest choices as “two-sided,” which means both slicing or elevating charges.
And thru that, the Nasdaq 100® is up +1% this week, and the 10-year Treasury yield is up only a few foundation factors to just about 4.1%.
subsequent week
Listed below are the highest occasions I am watching subsequent week:
Tuesday: State of the Union Wednesday: NVDA Earnings Thursday: Unemployment Claims Friday: Value Progress (January)
