this week
There have been some main information releases this week, however all of them got here with a giant outdated asterisk. (And spending on AI remained a spotlight.)
The financial system misplaced 105,000 jobs* in October and gained 64,000 jobs in November.
*Federal employment decreased by 162,000 as a result of DOGE retirement deferrals that paid staff by September.
The unemployment price rose greater than anticipated from 4.4% in September to 4.6%** in November.
**75% of the unemployment enhance was as a result of “furloughs” (a class of laid-off federal workers), so the federal government shutdown doubtless drove the enhance.
Retail gross sales had been flat*** in October.
***Spending on vehicles fell 1.6% month over month because the expiration of the EV tax credit score in September dampened demand, whereas spending at fuel stations fell 0.8% as a result of decrease fuel costs.
The headline CPI inflation price in November was 2.7% y/y, slowing from 3.0% in September.
****Two points: First, the BLS assumed that housing prices could be flat in October, pushing down one of many largest weights within the CPI. Second, information assortment started on November 14th because of the authorities shutdown, so vacation reductions doubtless pushed costs down.
So this week, the Nasdaq 100 is up +1% (blue line) and the 10-year Treasury yield is down a number of foundation factors to 4.15% (black line).
subsequent week
Listed below are the highest occasions I am watching subsequent week:
Q3 actual GDP on Tuesday, November industrial manufacturing on Tuesday, December shopper confidence on Monday, October sturdy items on Tuesday.
