this week
The market once more centered on the Federal Reserve and synthetic intelligence (AI) investments this week.
For the Fed, weak point within the labor market stays extra of a priority than above-target inflation. In mild of this, the Fed lower the federal funds fee by 25 foundation factors (bp) for 3 consecutive conferences to three.75%, the bottom stage in three years. Nonetheless, they instructed there’s more likely to be a lull from right here as they anticipate the economic system to enhance in 2026. Particularly, we anticipate actual GDP progress to rise (2.3% vs. 1.7% in 2025), core inflation to sluggish (2.5% vs. 3.0%), unemployment to say no barely (4.4% vs. 4.5%), and rates of interest lower solely as soon as (the market expects two).
Shortly after the Fed assembly, Oracle’s outcomes reignited considerations about AI spending. Though Oracle missed out on income and working revenue, it elevated its full-year capital spending plans by greater than 40% to $50 billion, elevating considerations about when its AI investments will flip worthwhile.
Each the Nasdaq 100® (blue line) and the 10-year Treasury yield (black line) had been roughly flat this week.
subsequent week
Listed below are the highest occasions I am watching subsequent week:
November nonfarm payrolls on Tuesday, November CPI inflation on Thursday, October retail gross sales on Tuesday.
