File picture: Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Khamenei waves throughout a gathering with college students on November 2, 2024 in Tehran, Iran.
Workplace of the Supreme Chief of Iran | by way of Reuters
Khamenei’s demise in a joint US-Israeli airstrike has pressured Iran’s management into an pressing course of to pick a brand new supreme chief.
Beneath Iran’s structure, the supreme chief is appointed by the Council of Consultants, an 88-member physique of clerics elected by the individuals each eight years. Candidates for Congress are first vetted by the Guardian Council, which strictly controls who can run.
When a emptiness happens able, a parliament is convened to deliberate and choose a successor. Selections require a easy majority vote.
Within the interim, an interim three-member Management Council will assume the duties of the Supreme Chief till a successor is formally appointed.
On Sunday, native media reported that the short-term council is made up of President Massoud Pezeshkian, Lawyer Normal Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and the pinnacle of the Guardian Council, Mullah Alireza Alafi.
Though the council’s powers are strictly transitional, the Meeting of Consultants retains the only constitutional authority to pick Iran’s subsequent supreme chief.
On Polymarket, merchants are pegging Mohseni Ejei as a detailed favourite with round 18%. Different front-runners embrace Arafif and Iranian cleric Hassan Khomeini.
The outcomes for ‘deprecation of positions’ stay shut, suggesting that whereas the market stays tilted towards particular person replacements, there’s significant hypothesis about doable structural adjustments to the positions themselves.
The principle candidates are:
Golam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei
Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, Iranian candidate for info minister, listens to a speech by a member of parliament in Iran’s parliament on August 21, 2005.
Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Pictures
Mohseni-Ejei has been Iran’s chief choose since July 2021, overseeing the nation’s judiciary and overseeing authorized coverage throughout the Islamic Republic.
Beforehand, he served as Lawyer Normal from 2009 to 2014, as First Deputy Director and Spokesperson of the Division of Justice from 2014 to 2021, and earlier than that served in nationwide safety roles together with Minister of Info from 2005 to 2009.
He’s additionally a longtime member of the Council of Expedient Discrimination, an necessary advisory physique to Iran’s management, and his profession has spanned senior positions in each the judiciary and safety companies.
Hassan Khomeini
Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Iran’s late chief Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, appears to be like on as he attends the opening ceremony of Hashemi Rafsanjani Hospital.
Null Photograph | Null Photograph | Getty Pictures
The Council on Overseas Relations stated Khomeini is the grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini and will theoretically function a bridge between the revolutionary regime and reform-minded voters.
The CFR advised that elevating somebody like him might assist preserve the Islamic Republic’s core buildings, scale back Iran’s worldwide isolation, and deal with in style grievances at dwelling.
Alireza Alafi
Mr. Alafi is a senior Iranian cleric and an influential determine inside the Islamic Republic’s spiritual and political hierarchy. He has risen by the ranks of the clergy by a sequence of necessary appointments, together with chairman of the Iranian Seminary, chief of Qom’s Friday prayers, and member of each the Guardian Council and the Council of Consultants, that are constitutionally tasked with choosing the supreme chief.
Mr. Alafi’s position in shaping theological training and vetting political candidates made him a central determine in Iran’s clerical energy construction.
What’s subsequent?
Beneath Article 111 of Iran’s structure, upon the demise or incapacity of the Supreme Chief, an interim management council is to be established instantly to train his powers till a successor is elected.
The structure doesn’t set a strict deadline for the Meeting of Consultants to nominate a brand new chief, however it does state that Parliament should act “inside the shortest doable time.”
However analysts warned {that a} formal succession course of might contain intense elite negotiations and widespread geopolitical uncertainty.
Emeritus Professor Amin Saikal from the College of Western Australia stated whereas Mr Mohseni-Ejei might seem like the frontrunner, the panel might select one other member or somebody from outdoors the panel.
“There’s going to be an enormous horse commerce,” he informed CNBC, including, “There might be a compromise with whoever comes alongside.”
He added {that a} hard-line successor would doubtless proceed Khamenei’s confrontational stance and security-first insurance policies, whereas a extra average determine would possibly search restricted reforms aimed toward easing home rules and bettering exterior relations to ease sanctions stress.
Individually, Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia and a professor at Stanford College, famous that traditionally air operations have hardly ever led to regime change, and questioned how the present U.S. strikes, which goal navy property slightly than home repressive measures, might result in the broader regime change that Washington has signaled.
